Who Is Smarter: You Or Your Computer? Technological Singularity
A science fiction novel I once read from a while back described a group of scientists who put together a supercomputer that was more intelligent than human beings. A scientist could type a question into the supercomputer, which would instantaneously answer with an accurate answer. One night, a scientist was working late in the lab alone. He typed the question “Is there a god?” into the supercomputer. Without hesitation, the supercomputer gave its disturbing reply: “There wasn’t a god, but there is one now.”
There is no denying that computers have come a long way from back in the day when one computer could easily take up the space of a whole room. Almost everyone has one, whether it be a laptop or a smart phone. They are so common, in fact, that even though you did not have access to the Internet just a relatively short time ago, you most likely take it for granted today. But will a computer ever be as intelligent, or even smarter than a human being?
It seems far fetched to think about. The human brain is so complicated and amazing. Just think about the hundreds of thousands of things it is doing right now. Quick!! Think about your foot. I bet before I mentioned your foot, you were not consciously thinking about it. But your brain was completely aware of your foot, and everything that was going on with it. But the brain is in fact so amazing that it does not need to bother you with all of its minute details. Only if you were to hurt your foot would the shooting pain would suddenly be very noticeable.
Now think about a chair. How do you define a chair anyway? Something with four legs and a seat? Something you sit on? Couldn’t a table then technically fit the definition of a chair? But that is a table, not a chair, right? And don’t chairs come in all sizes and shapes, like bean bag chairs or those bizarre ergonomic chairs? So when you look at a chair, how does your brain recognize that you are looking at a chair? It uses something called top down processing. A computer couldn’t do that. To program a computer to be able to recognize a chair, you’d have to plug in every possible definition of a chair into the thing, while your brain can do the work in half a second.
But think again. Computers can beat chess experts pretty easily nowadays. That is because in this case, the computer can utilize top down processing, while a human chess expert can only recognize simple patterns in the game. When you compete with a computer at chess, it enters the game with an entire tree of knowledge of every move that could be made, and every counter move. We like to think we are superior to computers, yet we have programmed computers to be able to recognize most of human speech. Think about how long it takes to teach a human baby to learn to talk, and all the work it entails. Now compare that with the amount of time it takes a computer to download some speech recognition software off of another computer. To be continued in the second article of this set, “Technological Singularity and Exponential Growth.
Mallory Megan works for a nationwide collection agency. Looking to find out more about fair debt collection practices or judgements? Contact us today! Unique version for reprint here: Who Is Smarter: You Or Your Computer? Technological Singularity.
08.19.10Can Humans Keep Up With Computers? Technological Singularity
Simply put, technological singularity is a prediction that technology will progress at an incredibly rapid pace, so rapid that the future will be unimaginable, unpredictable, and totally different than the way things are today. Of course there is much more to it, but this set of articles is just an introduction.
In his book “The Singularity is Near,” Ray Kurzweil states that technological evolution follows a pattern of exponential growth. This means that technological growth is multiplied, rather than simply added. In a nutshell, exponential growth means that progress starts out slowly, then slowly gets faster. The progress gets multiplied by further progress, which hurls advancement into an extremely fast pace. The more time that goes by, the faster things change.
History teaches us an important lesson about exponential growth. The economy roughly doubled every 250,000 years from the Paleolithic era until the Neolithic Revolution after some type of technological innovation. After this, agricultural economy started to double every 900 years. In today’s day and age, after the technology that came with the Industrial Revolution, the world’s economic output doubles every fifteen years.
That is an incredibly amount of change! If you just think about it for a minute, it’s hard not to agree with exponential growth. Think about how much technology accelerates in a year today, and compare that to how much technology accelerated in any year in the 1950′s.
Yet despite the fact that technology appears to changing getting faster and faster, humans can not seem to keep up. After all, even though the human brain has evolved, it has not changed in any significant way for millennia. Bearing in mind the increasing power of technologies and computers, it no longer seems so far fetched that a machine could be built that is more intelligent than human beings. In theory, if it were possible for humans to build a machine that had better problem solving skills than humans, and was more intelligent, then this machine could take it upon itself to design an even smarter machine. Then if this smarter machine was built, it could design a machine even smarter than itself, and so forth and so on. To be continued in the next article of this set, “How Could Humans Build A Computer That Is Smarter Than Them?
Mallory Megan works for Rapid Recovery Solution and writes articles on medical collection agencies. Also published at Can Humans Keep Up With Computers? Technological Singularity.
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How Would Humans Design A Computer That Could Outsmart Them?
In the last article of this series I wrote about technological singularity, which is a theory that technology will eventually advance so quickly that the future will be unimaginably different than it is today. I mentioned the fact that it is very possible that in the distant (or not so distant) future, a computer might be built that could outsmart a human being! So if the singularity may be looming in the future, how would human beings get over that initial first hurdle of creating a computer that is smarter than humanity? Theorists reason there are two ways: amplifying the intelligence of human brains until we are smart enough to come up with this computer, and artificial intelligence.
Taking a human brain and expanding its intelligence seems like it might be a long way off in the future, but there are many ways that scientists can do this even today. After all, in laboratories, it is fairly easy for scientists to genetically modify mice. Granted, they are just mice, but genetic modification of the human brain could be an option for the future. Then there are nootropic drugs, which are drugs, supplements and foods that have the capacity to improve mental functions. Refer to the field of psychopharmaceuticals if you don’t believe me that these exist.
Direct brain-computer interfaces exist, which are basically direct communication pathways between a brain and an external device. Monkeys have been able to control robotic arms simply by using their brains! One final example is mind uploading, which scientists are exploring now. This is the process of scanning a biological brain in detail and copying its state into a computer system. If this ever came about this would mean immortality for anyone who wanted to have their minds uploaded. Their consciousness would remain in the realm of the internet long after their biological bodies have died.
Then we go back to the idea of artificial intelligence, where smarter and smarter computers keep on being built by humans until we have a computer that is smart enough to design another computer that is smarter than itself. Theoretically, every computer that is smarter will design an even smarter computer, until they have outsmarted human beings.
Either way, it appears as if we are approaching the point of a very smart, self programming computer soon. Currently, there are many of computers that are responsible for making very important decisions regarding the human race. The United States Navy informs us that as military robots become more complicated, we should focus more attention to the ramifications of their ability to make autonomous decisions. Military robots potentially hold the lives of other people in their hands, and yes, they do make their “own” decisions. Some people believe that the leaps and bounds that we are already making with Artificial Intelligence should include an effort to make AI friendly and humane. It is definitely worth considering! To be continued in the next article, “What Happens After Humans Design A Computer That Can Outsmart Them?
Mallory Megan works for a national collection agency. Looking to find out more about the fair debt collection practices act? Hire a debt collection agency. This article, How Would Humans Design A Computer That Could Outsmart Them? is released under a creative commons attribution licence.
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Criticisms Of Technological Singularity And Exponential Growth
In this set of articles I described the idea of technological singularity. This prediction asserts that progress in technology starts very slowly at first, then grows faster and faster. Eventually, technology will progress so quickly that the future will be completely unimaginable and different than it is today. Proponents of this theory say that change is occurring so rapidly in today’s day and age that by 2024 there will be computers out there that are just as intelligent and capable of the human brain!
Of course, not everyone believes that the singularity is a feasible prediction. First of all, a number of people feel that no computer or machine will ever be capable of being as intelligent as a human being in the first place. Others argue with the theory of exponential growth, that in actuality, the rate of technological innovation is actually now declining rather than rapidly increasing. Some critics don’t dispute that there is exponential growth, but feel as though it is not an adequate predictor of change. They are quick to point to the example of quantum theory. The quantum was conceived in 1900, and theory existed and was accepted around twenty five years later. But it took more than forty years to yield any meaningful numbers from the theory.
One very intriguing argument against technological singularity is a study of patents per thousand persons over the course of the years. The number of patents actually peaked in the years from 1850-1900, and has been on the decline since. The critics that adhere to this argument claim that as complexity grows, the more limited things become, and humans are growing less and less creative as a result. So the chances of human beings designing a supercomputer seems slim to none from this stance.
Additionally, critics find specific issues with the main proponent of the singularity theory Ray Kurzweil’s chart of progress. Kurzweil bases his theory that technology is accelerating faster and faster on these charts. In his book “The Singularity is Near” Kurzweil gives us fifteen charts of the history of human evolution from various experts and sources, all pointing to the fact that change occurs slowly at first, then gets faster as the gaps between moments of progress get smaller and smaller. Some critics claim that a chart that is set up like this is simply biased towards proving what he sets forth to claim, others say that many of the early evolutionary events on these charts appear to be chosen arbitrarily.
Whether you agree with the theory of technological singularity or not, there is no denying that it is indeed a very intriguing idea to think about. Are computers the next step in evolution? Is it simply typical human hubris to believe that we will always be on the top of the food chain? These are all ideas that will become more and more prevalent as the years go by and technology progresses.
Mallory Megan works for a commercial collection agency. Is your account receivable department having trouble collecting a court judgement? Contact us today! Unique version for reprint here: Criticisms Of Technological Singularity And Exponential Growth.
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